Interface News Reporter | Li Rujia
The world's first Robotaxi stock has arrived.
On the evening of November 27th, Chinese autonomous driving company Xiaoma Zhixing was officially listed on NASDAQ with the stock code "PONY". The public offering price is $13/ADS, which is at the upper limit of the price range of $11-13. After opening, Xiaoma Zhixing rose more than 15%, but its stock price fell after maintaining the upward trend for a period of time, closing at $12/ADS with a market value of $4.199 billion.
After expanding the issuance scale by over 30%, Xiaoma Zhixing plans to issue 20 million ADS (American Depositary Shares). If the underwriters exercise their over allotment option, they will issue 23 million ADS. With the addition of approximately $153.4 million worth of common stock through synchronous private placement, the total amount raised in the IPO of Komatsu may reach approximately $452 million.
This company, founded in 2016, aims to develop "Virtual Drivers" that are suitable for different vehicle models and scenarios, while also expanding into three major businesses: Robotaxi, Robotruck, and POV for passenger cars.
Previously, Xiaoma Zhixing had gone through 7 rounds of financing, involving an amount of over 1.3 billion US dollars, with a large lineup of investors behind it, including venture capitalists such as Sequoia China, IDG Capital, Wuyuan Capital, Kunlun Capital, CPE Yuanfeng, Fidelity Capital, and Carlyle Investment Group, as well as car companies such as Toyota and FAW Group, state-owned enterprises such as China Merchants Capital, and overseas companies such as Saudi Arabia's New Future City, Canada's Ontario Teachers' Retirement Fund, and Brunei's sovereign wealth fund Brunei Investment Board.
Among them, Toyota is the strategic investor with the highest shareholding ratio, while Sequoia is the earliest and highest financial investor with the highest shareholding ratio. Sequoia China has invested in it for four consecutive rounds. In the early days of its establishment, Xiaoma Zhixing used the incubator located in Zhongguancun provided by Sequoia China as its office space to complete the initial team building and product design. During the company's second round of financing, Sequoia China facilitated some potential investors, including NIO Capital, to become investors in Xiaoma Zhixing.
In December 2018, PonyPilot, the first autonomous driving travel service platform in China, was launched by PonyPilot. At present, Xiaoma Zhixing has research and development centers in Silicon Valley, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Luxembourg, and is expanding its autonomous driving business in countries and regions such as South Korea, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, achieving technology and product internationalization.
A self driving Robotaxi, from initial road testing to final fully autonomous commercial toll collection, needs to go through several different stages in terms of policy. Firstly, during the stage where there is a safety officer in the car, Robotaxi needs to obtain testing permits, public passenger/demonstration application permits, and commercial charging permits in sequence. Next is the stage of no safety officer in the car, which is the fully unmanned stage, or the fully unmanned stage. Robotaxi also needs to go through the above testing, operation, and charging process again.
At present, Xiaoma Zhixing has entered the fully autonomous stage in Beijing Yizhuang, Guangzhou Nansha, Shanghai Pudong, Shenzhen Bao'an, and Nanshan, and the autonomous Robotaxi has been operated or charged to the public.
In addition to Robotaxi, Xiaoma Zhixing also offers autonomous driving freight services, providing autonomous truck technology and logistics solutions for mainline and dedicated logistics scenarios. Robotruck and Robotaxi share a set of "virtual driver" underlying technologies, with 80% of the technology being shareable and reusable. At a media briefing in April this year, Li Hengyu, Vice President of Komatsu and Head of the Truck Division, revealed that the Robotruck business has entered the stage of small-scale commercial operation, with an annual total revenue of over 100 million yuan.
According to the latest prospectus, Xiaoma Zhixing's revenue for 2022 and 2023 was 68.39 million US dollars and 71.9 million US dollars respectively, with a revenue of 39.51 million US dollars in the first three quarters of 2024, and a total revenue of over 179 million US dollars in the past three years. In terms of net losses, from 2022 to 2023, the net losses were $148 million and $125 million respectively, and in the first three quarters of 2024, they were $93.89 million. From 2022 to 2023, operating expenses will be $203 million and $160 million respectively. In the first three quarters of 2024, operating expenses will be $116 million, which is basically the same as the same period last year.
Xiaoma Zhihang's revenue is divided into three categories: revenue from autonomous driving travel services, revenue from autonomous driving freight services, and revenue from technology licensing and application services. According to the prospectus, in the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue from autonomous driving travel services was $4.7 million, a significant increase of 422.2% year-on-year; The revenue of autonomous freight services in the first three quarters of this year was 27.4 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%; In terms of technology licensing and application service revenue, Xiaoma Zhixing's revenue for the first three quarters of this year was 7.4 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 155.2%.
Xiaoma Zhixing mentioned that the growth in revenue from autonomous driving travel services is mainly due to the Robotaxi technology solution project in South Korea, with a small portion benefiting from the expansion of Robotaxi services in first tier cities and the increase in passenger payments. With the acceleration of commercial deployment of autonomous driving travel services, the company expects that this revenue will continue to grow in both absolute amount and total revenue proportion in the future.
Zhang Ning, Vice President of Xiaoma Zhixing and Head of Robotaxi's Autonomous Driving Travel Business, said, "In cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, when the Robotaxi deployment reaches 1000 units, the operation will reach the break even point. Beyond this point, for every additional vehicle added, our costs will be lower and our gross profit margin will be higher, entering a positive stage of continuous self generation
At present, Xiaoma Zhixing operates a fleet of over 250 Robotaxis, accumulating over 33.5 million kilometers of autonomous driving road test mileage, including nearly 4 million kilometers of unmanned testing mileage. In the first half of 2024, the daily average order volume for each fully unmanned Robotaxi exceeded 15 orders.
On April 26, 2024, Xiaoma Zhixing, Toyota China, and GAC Toyota jointly established a joint venture company: Dafeng Intelligent Technology (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. At the beginning of this month, the company reached a comprehensive cooperation agreement with BAIC New Energy to jointly develop a fully unmanned Robotaxi model based on the Arctic Fox Alpha T5 model and the seventh generation autonomous driving software and hardware system solution of Xiaoma Zhixing.
By collaborating with Toyota and BAIC for mass production, the seventh generation Robotaxi of Xiaoma Zhixing is expected to be launched on a thousand vehicle scale within the next two years. By 2025, it will achieve a break even point in single vehicle operation (gross profit turning positive) and begin to move towards large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi.
Global consulting firm Frost&Sullivan predicts that Robotaxi services are expected to be commercialized around 2026, driven by technological advancements, supportive policies, and reduced hardware costs. It is expected that around 2030, Robotaxi services will enter a mature commercial stage and be deployed in major regions around the world. The global market size of Robotaxi is expected to reach 290 million US dollars by 2025, further reaching 66.6 billion US dollars by 2030, and 352.6 billion US dollars by 2035.
The above-mentioned institutions also stated that China will become the largest Robotaxi service market, with a market size expected to reach 200 million US dollars by 2025 and 39 billion US dollars by 2030, accounting for more than half of the global Robotaxi service market share.
Xiaoma Zhixing stated that the funds raised from the IPO will be used for large-scale commercialization and market development of autonomous driving travel services and freight services, including production, sales, marketing, customer service, and industry collaboration; Continuous research and investment in autonomous driving technology; And potential strategic investments and acquisitions to enhance the company's technological capabilities and build an industrial chain ecosystem.
Despite the continuous advancement of autonomous driving technology, it is still unable to cope with all complex scenarios, which to some extent limits the pace of commercialization and means that Xiaoma Zhixing still has a long way to go to achieve stable and considerable profits.
In addition, the competition in the field of autonomous driving is fierce, with not only traditional car manufacturers investing in research and development, but also numerous technology companies laying out their presence. In the future, the position that Xiaoma Zhixing can occupy in the global Robotaxi market, how much market share it can compete for, and whether it can cope with relevant policies and regulations in different regions will be the long-term focus of attention for the capital market.