华创宏观海外主要央行市场加息预期跟踪:美联储、欧央行、日央行、边际转鹰
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发表于 2024-2-19 10:09:26
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联系人:夏雪
截至2024年2月16日,市场对主要央行加息预期如下:
美联储:边际转鹰。目前市场预期6月开启降息,全年降息至少3次至4.75%。与上周相比,主要变化在于:全年降息次数预期下降,由4.5次减为3.6次。
欧央行:边际转鹰。目前市场预期4月开启降息的概率是37%,6月降息概率为81.4%;全年降息至少4次至3%。与上周相比,主要变化在于:全年降息次数预期下降,由4.6次减为4.2次。
日央行:边际转鹰。目前市场预期日央行将于上半年加息退出负利率,其中4月预期加息次数为0.69次,意味着4月退出负利率的概率较高,达69%;全年至少加息2次至0.1%。与上周相比,主要变化在于:全年加息次数预期略微提升,由2.6次升至2.8次。
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