美国通胀数据超预期 PIMCO:美联储续将继续收紧货币政策
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发表于 2023-10-13 20:29:38
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Tiffany Wilding称,目前市场已大致反映美国经济强劲的利好因素,预计美国不会步入衰退,这主要由于疫情期间美国政府大洒金钱的刺激财政政策,延长消费者加息环境下的消费能力,令美国消费市场出现令人难以置信的荣景,但通胀蚕食家庭可支配收入,加上随储蓄减少,预期消费开支会放慢,美国经济将逐步放缓。
Tiffany Wilding表示,昔日在高通胀及大手加息的环境下,美国经济未曾出现软着陆,而参照历史经验,加息对经济的影响一般会于6至8个季度后完全显现,经济也会以步入衰退结束,但基于目前劳工市场依然强劲,故软着陆仍有机会,但也不排除出现衰退的可能性。
对于美联储何时减息,Tiffany Wilding认为,要视乎劳工市场正常化的步伐,将会影响美联储的货币政策走向。
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.
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