Christmas is approaching, and American stock investors who go to supermarkets to stock up will have to face the impact of expensive egg prices. More importantly, with Trump about to enter the White House and the continued tension in supply and demand, this round of egg price increases seems to have no end in sight.
According to a report from commodity data company Expana, the wholesale price of large eggs in the Midwest of the United States reached $5.57 per dozen this week, a 150% increase from the same period last year and breaking the previous record of $5.46 in December 2022.
Even more exaggerated is California, where farmers are not allowed to keep hens in cages, resulting in even more severe supply shortages. This week, egg prices in California hit an astonishing high of $8.85 per dozen.
Possible further increase in the future
Karyn Rispoli, the head of the egg category at Expana, explained that due to many retailers not wanting to scare away consumers during the busiest holiday season at the end of the year, the rate of price increases will be slower, which means that consumers will see an increase in egg prices after the New Year.
In this round of price increases, the impact of avian influenza on laying hens is the main reason. Since the outbreak in 2022, the United States has killed 123 million poultry in 49 states.
According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, the number of laying hens in the United States decreased by 3% year-on-year in October this year, with a total of approximately 315 million, and egg production decreased by 4% year-on-year.
According to other data, nearly half of the 35 million commercial laying hens slaughtered for avian influenza this year were found to have been infected with the virus in the past three months. In Iowa, the largest egg producing state in the United States, workers are processing 4.2 million hens that tested positive this month.
Meanwhile, wild birds can also transmit avian influenza virus to livestock. The avian influenza outbreak among dairy herds this year has increased the risk of virus transmission from farm delivery trucks to poultry farms.
Another evidence of the rampant spread of avian influenza is that the United States has confirmed 61 cases of H5N1 avian influenza so far this year, mainly among dairy workers and workers who have culled sick chicken flocks, with mostly mild cases. However, Louisiana reported its first severe case of avian influenza this week, with the patient in critical condition due to severe respiratory illness.
This month, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its expectations for US egg production and exports in 2025, while raising its price outlook. Greg Taylor, CEO of the U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Council, stated that the supply in the domestic market is now insufficient, and the supply for exports is naturally also insufficient.
For eggs in the United States, in addition to the supply shortage caused by avian influenza itself, there is also an uncertain factor - Trump is about to regain control of the White House. If he triggers a comprehensive increase in trade costs, egg prices will also be difficult to handle alone.
According to reports, Giant, a US retail chain supermarket, has cancelled its promotional event originally scheduled for January next year. The pricing director of the supermarket said straightforwardly, "We just don't know where the costs will be