List of Heavy Schedule for This Week
The last 'Central Bank Super Week' of this year is coming! Is the Federal Reserve planning a hawkish interest rate cut?
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3am Beijing time on Thursday, becoming the top priority of market attention this week. Currently, the market generally expects a 97% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December. However, due to the strengthening of November data, the risk of the Federal Reserve suspending interest rate cuts in early 2025 has increased. Powell's post meeting speech and the latest economic forecast will be crucial.
Goldman Sachs believes that there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, and then continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January and March 2025; Subsequently, only interest rate cuts were made at the June and September meetings. However, there are still some variables, as more and more Federal Reserve officials indicate that the FOMC may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts as soon as possible, so there is a risk of suspending interest rate cuts at the January meeting.
It is worth noting that the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week has been fully reflected in market prices, and any variables could overturn market expectations. In addition, the interest rate decision results of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will be announced successively on Thursday and are expected to remain unchanged.
China's November economic data and Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator released
On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release economic data such as the added value of industries above designated size, fixed assets investment, social consumer goods, and housing prices in 70 cities in November.
The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the core PCE price index for November in the United States, will be released on Friday. In addition, important data such as November retail sales data and the final value of the third quarter real GDP annualized quarter over quarter ratio will also be released on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.
According to economists' predictions, PCE (excluding food and energy) may rise by 0.2% in November, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show steady growth in consumer spending and income, indicating the resilience of the economy.
The November retail sales data in the United States on Tuesday may also show a similar strong momentum. Last month's data showed that driven by a surge in car purchases, retail sales in the United States increased in October, with other categories of retail indicating some growth momentum as we enter the holiday season.
The US GDP remained stable in the third quarter, mainly due to the strong performance of consumer spending. The report shows that consumer spending increased by 3.5% in the third quarter, although slightly lower than the expected and initial value of 3.7%, it is still the highest growth rate this year.
The US stock earnings season is coming to an end; Multiple new Hong Kong stock listings
In terms of US stock financial reports, only a few top companies such as Micron Technology (MU. US), FedEx (FDX. US), and Carnival Cruise Line (CCL. US) are worth paying attention to. The new round of financial reporting season will begin next month.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, suppliers of health products, beauty and skincare products, Caoji Group (02593. HK), and leading Chinese restaurant for the convenience of the public, Xiaocaiyuan (00999. HK), will respectively land on the Hong Kong stock market on Thursday and Friday.
On December 11th, market news showed that the subscription amount of Caoji Group's first day of IPO margin reached HKD 11.06 billion, oversubscribed by 798.7 times. The group was jointly founded by artist Guo Jin'an and his sister Guo Zhiyin, with a planned issuance of 33.334 million shares, of which 10% will be publicly offered in Hong Kong, with a tender price ranging from HKD 3.75 to HKD 4.15, raising up to HKD 140 million.
This week's key performance calendar
Monday, December 16th
Keywords: China's November economic data; December New York Fed Manufacturing Index and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
On Monday, in terms of economic data, the National Bureau of Statistics in China will release economic data for November, including national real estate development, retail sales of consumer goods, and housing prices in 70 cities; In Europe and the United States, the December New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the December Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone will be released successively.
In terms of financial events, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy, and European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech.
In terms of new shares, the subscription for new shares of Hong Kong stock company Caoji Group (02593. HK) has ended.
Tuesday, December 17th
Keywords: Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December; Monthly retail sales rate and industrial output rate in November in the United States
On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, data such as the US November retail sales rate, US November industrial output rate, and the Eurozone December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be released.
In terms of new shares, the subscription for new shares of Hong Kong Stock Exchange's Little Vegetable Garden (00999. HK) has ended.
Wednesday, December 18th
Keywords: US Q3 current account; Micron Technology Financial Report
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the final annual CPI value for the Eurozone in November, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in November, the US third quarter current account, and the US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 13th will be released one after another.
In terms of financial reports, the important semiconductor company in the US stock market, Micron Technology (MU. US), will be listed.
In terms of new shares, Caoji Group (02593. HK) will announce its winning results on the Hong Kong stock market, and the subscription for new shares of Yuejiang (02432. HK) has ended.
Thursday, December 19th
Keywords: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England interest rate decisions; The number of initial jobless claims for the week in the United States and the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the third quarter; Caoji Group's new stock listing today
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will hit at 3:00 am Beijing time, and the results of interest rate decisions by the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and other banks will also be announced. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States this week, the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter, and the leading indicator data of the November Conference Board will be released one after another.
In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 3:30 am Beijing time, which deserves special attention.
In terms of new stocks, the new stock of Caoji Group (02593. HK) in the Hong Kong stock market was listed today, and the lottery results of Xiaocaiyuan (00999. HK) will be announced.
Friday, December 20th
Keywords: November Core PCE Price Index Annual Rate in the United States; Carnival Cruise's financial report; Xiaocaiyuan's new stock went public today
On Friday, in terms of economic data, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), will be released. In addition, the one-year loan market quoted interest rate in China, the annual core CPI rate in Japan, the monthly personal expenditure rate in November in the United States, and the December University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will also be released one after another.
In terms of financial reports, American cruise giant Carnival Cruise Line (CCL. US) will release its chart before the US market.
In terms of new stocks, in the Hong Kong stock market, $Xiaocaiyuan (00999. HK) $went public today, and $Yuejiang (02432. HK) $will announce the lottery results.