Today, the Hong Kong stock market continued to be weak, but consumer stocks were clearly active, and the heat spread to multiple sub sectors.
As of press time, essential consumer industries such as catering and dairy products have shown the most positive performance. Yuran Animal Husbandry (09858. HK) rose nearly 14%, Xiabu Xiabu (00520. HK) rose over 5%, and stocks such as Jiumao Jiu (09922. HK), China Feihe (06186. HK), and China Resources Beverages (02460. HK) also rose by more than 3%.
At the short-term level, the Central Politburo held a meeting on December 9th and proposed to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand.
As the main lever for expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption has naturally attracted market attention. In addition, consumer industries such as automobiles will enter a period of performance surge towards the end of the year.
Recently, as the Spring Festival approaches, the popularity of ice and snow tourism, cold escape tourism, and other activities continues. Many popular tourist cities have issued cultural and tourism consumption vouchers one after another. Among them, Sichuan will launch a 150 million yuan cultural and tourism gift package, including 95 million yuan cultural and tourism consumption vouchers, which is also expected to drive the expansion of various consumer expenditures.
According to a research report by CITIC Securities, as the Spring Festival approaches, coupled with the continuous emphasis on domestic demand from top to bottom and rising policy expectations, consumption is expected to usher in a new round of rebound and recovery.
It is worth mentioning that since the fourth quarter, benefiting from policy support, residents' consumption demand has continued to be released. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 1.6 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the highest monthly growth rate since March.
CITIC Securities believes that there is still a package of policies available to promote consumption, such as subsidies for first-time car buyers, maternity subsidies, and the issuance of national subsidy catering and tourism consumption vouchers.
In terms of configuration, it is suggested to gradually move from offensive and defensive to flexible varieties, including consumer Internet, dairy products with low value and high return and whose operation is expected to take the lead in stabilizing, public catering, etc., and consider the consumption configuration demand driven by expectations, such as catering supply chain, alcohol, human resources services, hotels, etc. with obvious pro cyclical characteristics.
Huatai Securities also pointed out that with the continuous promotion of consumption policies, the large consumer sector is entering a period of allocation window, and we continue to be optimistic about the basic outlook and valuation recovery of the consumer sector.