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[align center] Trump: Imposing tariffs uncertain whether American families will pay more

According to CCTV News, on December 8th local time, US President elect Trump detailed the comprehensive reforms he will implement after taking office.
Trump said he will fulfill his campaign promise to impose tariffs on imported products from America's largest trading partner. But when asked if he could "guarantee that American families will not pay more for his plan," he acknowledged the uncertainty.
Immigration is one of the core issues of Trump's campaign, with Trump stating that he plans to deport millions of illegal immigrants and attempt to revoke birthright citizenship.
In terms of foreign policy, Trump has stated that he is actively working to end the war and that Ukraine "may" not receive as much military aid from the United States when he takes office again. He also stated that he would not promise to keep the United States in NATO unless' they can afford the bill '.
In addition, Trump has stated that he will strive to extend the tax cuts he passed during his first term, will not seek restrictions on abortion drugs, and will pardon those convicted of the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill riots.
The Canadian dollar experienced a significant drop in its exchange rate against the US dollar

Last Friday, the Canadian dollar plummeted sharply against the US dollar, with a intraday drop of 1%, hitting a low of 1 US dollar to 1.4165 Canadian dollars. As of the close of the day, the Canadian dollar was trading at 1.4156 against the US dollar, down 0.93% from the previous trading day and hitting a new low since April 2020.
On the same day, Statistics Canada released labor force survey data showing that in November, although employers added 51000 jobs, the country's unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 6.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, the highest level since 2021.
After the release of employment data in November, the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar plummeted significantly. Analysts have pointed out that the recent poor performance of the Canadian dollar is partly due to Trump's re-election, which has incentivized investors to flock to safe haven assets such as the US dollar.
It is reported that the Bank of Canada will announce its latest policy interest rate adjustment decision on December 11th. The employment data for November is also the last important economic report before the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on December 11th. Since June, the Bank of Canada has cumulatively cut interest rates by 125 basis points, including a significant 50 basis point rate cut in October. After the release of the unemployment rate data for November, the market's expectation for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this week has risen from 55% to 80%. Market analysts generally believe that the data shows that the Canadian economy is currently weak and growth is sluggish. This has also increased market expectations for the Bank of Canada to significantly lower interest rates again.
Bloomberg reported that speculative currency traders hold significant bearish positions on the Canadian dollar until the end of 2024. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of December 3, non-commercial traders in the Canadian dollar had a net short selling volume of approximately 159000 contracts, valued at approximately $11.3 billion.
So far this year, the Canadian dollar has fallen by 6.8%, matching the widening spread between US and Canadian government bond yields. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the current yield of two-year US treasury bond is about 120 basis points higher than that of Canadian treasury bond, the highest level since 1997.
Saudi Arabia lowers all oil prices for Asia in January 2025
On December 8th local time, global crude oil giant Saudi Aramco announced a reduction in all oil prices for Asia in January 2025. The official selling price of Arab light crude oil sold to Asia in January will be lowered by 80 cents per barrel, set at a premium of 0.9 US dollars per barrel compared to the average price in Oman/Dubai (previously 1.7 US dollars per barrel).
The official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil and ultra light crude oil will also be reduced by 60 cents/barrel and 70 cents/barrel respectively in January next year, while the official selling prices of Arabian medium crude oil and heavy crude oil will be reduced by 70 cents/barrel.
According to official statements, Saudi Aramco has also lowered the prices of oil sold to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean region, but there has been no change in the prices of oil sold to North America.
Prior to this, Saudi Aramco raised the official price of crude oil sold to Asian customers in November. The official price of Saudi Aramco's benchmark Arab light crude oil increased by 90 cents per barrel in November, reaching $2.20 per barrel higher than the regional benchmark Oman/Dubai crude oil average price. This rise came after oil prices fell to their lowest level in nearly three years in October.
Syria undergoes a sudden 'transformation'

According to Xinhua News Agency, on December 8th, the situation in Syria was volatile as opposition forces announced the capture of Homs and entered Damascus. Subsequently, armed opposition personnel appeared on Syrian state television and declared in a televised speech that they had "liberated Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime".
Syrian Prime Minister Jalali stated on the same day that his last contact with Bashar was on the afternoon of the 7th and he was unaware of his specific whereabouts. Jalali said he will stay in Damascus to continue fulfilling his duties and has already contacted the opposition, with both sides agreeing to protect public institutions. Most cabinet ministers remain in Damascus, and the government is working hard to bring staff back to their respective positions, hoping that all parties in Syria can achieve "reconciliation".
According to a report by Reuters citing senior Syrian military officials, Bashar al Assad left Damascus by plane on the 8th. Later today, citing a statement from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia reported that Bashar al Assad has left Syria and ordered a peaceful transfer of power.
What is the bullish consolidation index for the sudden change in the Middle East situation?

Entering December, the overall performance of the consolidation index (European line) futures market fluctuated, with the EC2502 contract closing up 3.79% on the weekly line at 2642.5 points.
The Futures Daily reporter noticed that on December 6th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Hang Seng Exchange rose 1.0% on a weekly basis, reaching 2256.46 points. Among them, the SCFI European freight rate index decreased by 0.30% month on month, reporting $3030/TEU. The overall demand for European air route transportation is stable, and market freight rates have remained at last week's level, with slight fluctuations in spot market booking prices.
In terms of spot freight rates, the current quote for the first half of December is $4700-5500/FEU. The pressure of cargo collection in the second week has increased compared to the first week, and some shipping companies have lowered their freight rates, "said Jia Ruilin, a shipping analyst at Galaxy Futures.
Wu Jialu, a shipping researcher at CITIC Futures, stated that despite the reduction in spot prices by shipping companies in early December, there is still a willingness to increase freight rates in the future. The OCEAN Alliance still has expectations for a price hike in late December, and MSK's January price increase letter, announced after a drop in December, is around $6000/FEU. The market is still observing the subsequent landing performance.
Specifically, in the 2M Alliance, MSK's current shipping price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on December 19th remains at $4748/FEU; On Friday after hours, MSK announced its January price increase letter, which was at $3900/TEU and $6000/FEU, the same as the November price increase letter; And MSC's unified online quotation from week 50 to the end of the month is $5040/FEU.
In the OCEAN Alliance, CMA's online quotation fluctuated, with FAL3 dropping to $4310/FEU in the middle of the week before rebounding. Currently, the price in early December is $5085/FEU, and it remains at $5135-5485/FEU in late December. EMC and COSCO still have high price expectations for late December. Currently, EMC's online quote for late December is $5120/FEU, an increase of $400 from early December; COSCO's online quotation is $6825/FEU, an increase of $600 from the beginning of the year; OOCL followed the price increase to $5500/FEU in the second half of the year, an increase of $700 compared to the first half.
From a fundamental perspective, Lei Yue, the head of shipping research at Haitong Futures Research Institute, stated that in terms of transportation capacity supply, according to statistics on December 4th, the weekly average transportation capacity from East China to European ports in December was 26.5wTEU, and the weekly average transportation capacity in January was 29.2wTEU, an increase of 10% compared to the previous month. There are currently no plans to announce any vacant flights. Further attention should be paid to whether there are any vacant classes during the Spring Festival holiday.
At the same time, Maersk announced its original 2M Alliance final voyage plan and the new Alliance Gemini initial voyage plan. Under the cooperation framework of the original 2M alliance, the ETD for the last flight of AE5 on the European route in Shanghai is 2/6, the ETD for the last flight of AE6 in Shanghai is 2/3, and AE7 and AE55 are still in TBN status. Please pay attention to whether there are any empty flights during the Spring Festival holiday. In addition, the first voyage of the new alliance Gemini generally begins in the 7th week, and follow-up attention will be paid to the dispatch of ships by the MSC and PA alliances.
In terms of demand, Jia Ruilin stated that as the peak season enters from December to January next year, it is expected that the volume of goods will further increase, and the pace of improving the volume of goods can be monitored. In addition, on a macro level, retail sales in the Eurozone experienced their first decline since June in October, with a monthly retail sales rate of -0.5%, the largest decline since December 2023.
In the future, Wu Jialu believes that the contracts in the coming months are expected to be mainly volatile. At present, the market is playing a game between the expected price drop in late December and the expected price increase in January next year. The expected price increase in January next year may bring an upward opportunity for the short-term market, but the volume of goods in December is difficult to fulfill the market's expectations for the peak season. The market needs to pay attention to the risk of rising and falling. With the support of cargo transportation demand before the Spring Festival, it may drive the high performance of freight rates in recent months
Jia Ruilin believes that with the improvement of cargo volume before next year's Spring Festival, coupled with the tacit understanding of long-term contract season shipping companies, spot freight rates still have support. Considering that the current long-term contract cargo volume is not pessimistic, and the worrying stocking caused by tariffs is still present, the freight rate center is expected to maintain an overall upward trend before the Spring Festival.
It is worth noting that the EC2412 contract is currently entering the delivery month. Fu Xiaoyan, a shipping analyst at Nanhua Futures, said that as we enter December, the divergence in quotes from shipping companies has increased. Based on the quotes in mid to early December, the settlement price of the EC2412 contract is calculated, and the performance of the EC2412 contract is slightly discounted.
At the end of the year, it is a critical stage for the signing of long-term contracts, and the negotiation game between shipowners and shippers is intensifying. It is expected that the short-term market will remain high and volatile. We will continue to pay attention to the operational opportunities for the convergence of the EC2412 contract basis. According to the estimation of spot freight rates, the corresponding conversion index is around 3300 points, "said Che Meichao, a shipping analyst at Yide Futures.
In terms of far month contracts, Wu Jialu stated that investors need to pay attention to the impact of the situation in Syria on the situation in the Middle East. If the conflict in the Middle East intensifies in the future and there is a shortage of holdings in the far month market, the consolidation index market may experience significant fluctuations.
Tags： Lido Syria SaudiArabia
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.
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