Recently, Apple has been rumored to enter new businesses. Renowned Apple analyst Guo Mingchi stated in a post that Apple expects to officially mass produce smart home network cameras (IP cameras) in 2026. This news has attracted high market attention, and the stock price of GoerTek (002241. SZ), rumored to be the exclusive assembly supplier for the production line, has also risen sharply.
Liu Dayong, a senior analyst at Sigmientell's semiconductor division, told Caixin reporters that once the product matures, it may bring Apple over $2 billion in annual revenue in the future.
Guo Mingchi recently announced that Apple will enter the smart home network camera market for the first time and plans to mass produce it by 2026; And Apple's long-term goal is to increase the annual shipment volume of this product line to over 10 million units. Regarding the authenticity of this news, a Caixin reporter has sent an email to Apple China, but as of press time, no response has been received.
It is not difficult to understand Apple's move into smart home network cameras. At present, the concept of smart home ecosystem is constantly enhancing, and Apple's old rivals such as Xiaomi and Huawei have already established a very complete industrial layout. At the same time, as a human-computer interaction terminal, smartphones form a strong binding with smart home systems and enter the field of smart home network cameras. While expanding the layout of the Internet of Things industry, it can also enhance the competitiveness of its own smartphone products.
In recent years, the demand for global network cameras has steadily increased. According to data from Qunzhi Consulting, approximately 140 million civilian consumer grade network cameras (including smart doorbells and door lock devices) will be shipped in 2023, including around 90 million home network cameras, with a total output value of approximately 3 billion US dollars; The institution also predicts that the compound annual growth rate of demand for home network cameras will be about 7.63% in the next five years.
Liu Dayong told Caixin reporters that Apple has certain advantages in entering the field of smart home network cameras. Firstly, the Apple OS system has a strong degree of closure, which provides more secure protection for user privacy compared to general network camera devices, and is easier to gain the choice and trust of original Apple users. Secondly, Apple has a massive user base and market potential, with approximately 1.46 billion active iPhone users worldwide in 2023. These users have a high likelihood of prioritizing the purchase of Apple network camera devices when choosing home network cameras
Regarding the future market performance of this product, Liu Dayong believes that based on the market coverage of mainstream products such as Apple smartphones and laptops, its network camera devices may ultimately have a market share of about 15% to 20%. After the product matures in the future, it may bring in more than 2 billion US dollars in revenue annually, depending on its final pricing.
On the supplier side, Guo Mingchi stated that GoerTek has obtained NPI (New Product Introduction) and will become the exclusive assembly supplier for the product. Regarding the authenticity of this news, GoerTek did not directly deny it, only stating to a reporter from Caixin News Agency that "relevant project information about the client cannot be disclosed
However, in recent days, or influenced by this news, as of the closing of the afternoon market on November 13th, GoerTek's stock price has risen by about 9.65% this week.
As is well known, since GoerTek Inc. suffered from Apple's "order cuts" at the end of 2022, the company's performance has been significantly affected. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 98.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.80%. At the same time, speculation about the partnership between GoerTek and Apple is also rampant in the market.
For GoerTek, this new order not only brings in new revenue, but also indicates a renewed partnership between the company and Apple. Guo Mingchi stated in his post that the relationship between GoerTek and Apple has normalized since the second half of 2024, as evidenced by the company's acquisition of NPI for two new products from Apple in 2026. Given the low base in 2024, it is expected that GoerTek's Apple business will see significant improvement in 2025, and with the promotion of the NPI of the two new products mentioned above, Apple's business will achieve further growth in 2026.
In addition, companies such as Apple's traditional lens supplier Sunny Optical Technology (02382. HK) and microphone supplier AAC Technologies (02018. HK) may also benefit from this project.
However, there are also difficulties for Apple to enter new fields. Liu Dayong said that the unit price of Apple devices is usually higher than that of similar products on the market, which requires higher consumer power from users; In addition, the current geopolitical uncertainty has led governments and the public to pay more attention to privacy and security. Network camera devices can retrieve users' daily recorded video information through the background, and the public may be concerned about privacy breaches and unwilling to install devices from overseas manufacturers.