US stocks rose, US bonds rose, gold rose, crude oil rose - on November 5th, the day of the US election, cross asset classes in the global market seemed to be "blooming at multiple points" with enthusiasm. Although a series of "Trump deals" appeared quite bleak on election day, they suddenly began to surge in the morning session of the Asian session on Wednesday
Market data shows that the three major stock indexes in the United States closed sharply higher on Tuesday, experiencing a widespread rebound, and the market's risk appetite sentiment was high driven by the collective rise of technology stocks. The stock market seems to have avoided the volatility caused by the election to some extent, as people expect a soft landing of the economy, improved corporate performance, lower interest rates, and a resilient labor market to provide further support for the market.
As shown in the following chart, all major stock index futures rose on Tuesday, with small cap stocks leading the gains
As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 427.28 points, or 1.02%, to 42221.88 points; The Nasdaq rose 259.19 points, or 1.43%, to 18439.17 points; The S&P 500 index rose 70.07 points, or 1.23%, to 5782.76 points.
In terms of technology giants, Nvidia once again surpassed Apple on Tuesday to become the world's largest company by market value.
A basket of stocks with the highest degree of short selling in the market showed a unilateral upward trend overnight.
In fact, traders should not be surprised by the rise on election day - the S&P 500 index has not fallen on election day since 2000
From a cross asset category perspective, the commodity market also followed the overall strength of the US stock market on that day. Among them, gold remained above $2740.
Crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards amidst the volatile development of the Middle East situation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed Defense Minister Galant on the same day, and Netanyahu accused Galant of indirectly helping Israel's enemies.
If we talk about the "losers" on election day, a series of "Trump deals" that have risen too much in the past month are clearly on the list. As shown in the figure below, the stock prices of Bitcoin, US Treasury yields, and Trump Media (DJT) have all been significantly under pressure during overnight trading.
However, it is worth mentioning that the Asian market experienced a sudden change in the morning session on Wednesday - these "Trump trades" that were under pressure last night have suddenly resumed their momentum!
Among them, although DJT closed down 1.16% on Tuesday, it rebounded significantly by 10% in after hours trading.
The yields of the US dollar, Bitcoin, and 10-year bonds also surged sharply at the beginning of Wednesday's Asian trading session.
From the situation of the gambling prediction platform, Polymarket, which has the highest trading volume, shows that Trump's winning rate has reached as high as 68%.
As of 9am Beijing time on November 6th, polling stations in 16 states and Washington D.C. in the United States have been closed one after another. According to the Associated Press, Republican presidential candidate Trump won Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida, and Tennessee, with a total of 95 electors. Democratic candidate Harris won a total of 35 candidate votes in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Washington D.C.
Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of US interest rate strategy at TD Securities in New York, said, "This is normal market volatility during the election period, and in fact, the market is trying to fine tune the chances of Trump and Harris being elected president. If you look at the probability of the Republican Party winning across the board, they have decreased today, but the magnitude is small
A series of previous polls have shown that the competition between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is still evenly matched, and the voting results may be very close. The possibility of controversial results means that the vote counting may continue for days or even weeks.
Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management, said, "The market continues to try to price the outcome of this election. Both the bond and stock markets believe that Congress is also important, and most of the basic situation is a government split, but this election is so close that we may get any results. That's where the challenge lies