美联储点阵图:预计今年再降50基点
我心如烟卸
发表于 2024-9-19 20:56:37
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最新公布的点阵图显示,美联储未来大概率仍将继续进行降息。点阵图是美联储官员对未来利率走向的预测,每位官员都会在该图上标示自己对未来利率的看法。
具体来看,美联储19位政策制定者(每位对应上图中一个蓝点)对2024年末美联储利率预期的中位数落在4.25%—4.50%,较当前利率低50个基点,意味着美联储年内还将降息50个基点,2024年将累计降息100个基点。
点阵图还显示,美联储政策制定者预期,2025年末利率将落在3.25%—3.50%,这意味着明年将累计降息100个基点。2026年将降息50个基点,长期利率维持在2.75%—3.00%之间。
值得注意的是,美联储政策制定者之间也会存在分歧,他们对利率调整的观点也会随着经济形式的变化而改变,对当前点阵图显示的预期可以参考但不能盲从。
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.