通胀走高,日本何时会加息?大摩预测……
lang3344
发表于 2024-5-21 11:57:54
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王爷说财经讯:随着通胀走高,市场开始发问:日本何时会加息?
对此,5月20日,摩根士丹利董事总经理兼首席全球经济学家——卡朋特(SethCarpenter)领导的股票策略团队预测,日本央行将在今年7月再次加息,此后随着通胀走低,明年一季度只加息一次。
卡朋特认为,“再通胀”将是推动日央行做出加息决定的主要推手。
一方面,随着最近日元持续暴跌,日本经济的输入型通胀风险进一步加剧;另一方面,随着今年“春斗”谈判结果强劲,再加上日本劳动力市场延续紧张,“工资-通胀”的良性循环稳步迈进。
最后,卡朋特还表示,最近日本央行行长——植田和男的偏“鹰派”的言论也强化了日本7月加息的预期。
对此,你怎么看?你认为,日本是否会加息?何时会加息?
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author only, this article does not represent the position of CandyLake.com, and does not constitute advice, please treat with caution.