List of Heavy Schedule for This Week
The US CPI will be released on Wednesday
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's previous speech hinted that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting. Powell said that the current economic situation allows the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious policy, which may mean that the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates, but the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
The US inflation data released on Wednesday may be the key indicator that ultimately determines whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. At present, the overall market expects CPI to slightly increase from 2.6% to 2.7%, while the core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%.
Analysts at BNP Paribas predict that even if inflation data is slightly higher than expected, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. They stated in a report, "Given that interest rates remain restrictive and a communication foundation has been established for suspending rate hikes next year, we believe that most Federal Reserve officials would be willing to continue with the December rate cut
However, Bill Eigen, a bond expert at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned the market before the next Federal Reserve meeting that there may not be as much room for the Fed to cut interest rates as it imagines, and central banks around the world should not cut interest rates again in December. He added that this is because there are some signs that the US economy is starting to heat up again, including strong GDP growth, slightly higher than expected inflation data from last month, and record breaking stock prices. Wage, service, and housing inflation seem particularly tricky and may even rise. Housing prices remained one of the biggest drivers of inflation in October, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 75 basis points so far this year, which may be closer to a neutral rate than it believes.
The Central Economic Work Conference is expected to be held in mid December
CITIC Securities stated that it is expected to hold the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference in mid December. Although according to convention, the conference generally does not announce specific targets such as economic growth rate and deficit ratio, it believes that this year's conference will still maintain a positive tone of increasing countercyclical adjustments. The focus on the continuation of real estate policies and domestic demand support policies will still be the focus of market attention.
First of all, the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to maintain the positive tone of counter cyclical regulation. It is expected that next year's GDP growth target will be around 5%, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to rise to 4%. In particular, the scale of treasury bond and special bonds has increased compared with this year. The consensus on market policy is expected to further improve, which will once again boost investor confidence, especially the risk appetite of institutional investors; At the same time, after external negative factors have been fully digested by the market, investors' reactions to them have become passive.
Secondly, with the implementation of a package of policies in the early stage and the promotion of social financing, the domestic economic situation remained at a high level in November, and it is expected that the economy will end steadily this year with a growth rate of around 5%. With the support of the government and central enterprises in driving social financing, it is expected that the real economy will steadily recover and maintain momentum throughout the year.
Finally, the central bank calmly responded to internal and external pressures, and the overall macro liquidity across the year tended to stabilize, with the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts in the near future; The downward interest rate center enhances the value of equity allocation, and long-term funds such as insurance are expected to enter the market. Institutional funds, active funds, and retail funds are expected to resonate, driving the A-share market into the new year.
China's CPI and PPI will be released on Monday
Zheshang Securities expects the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in November to be 0.5%, and the month on month growth rate to be -0.3%, indicating a certain recovery trend in CPI. The downward pressure on industrial consumer goods has not significantly eased, and service prices have generally remained stable with an increase due to the National Day holiday effect. Overall, CPI is expected to rebound slightly.
In terms of PPI, Zhejiang Securities expects the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in November to be -2.9%, and the month on month growth rate to be -0.3%, with a year-on-year decline basically unchanged from October. The institution believes that inventory cycles are difficult to effectively support prices, and it may take a long time for midstream manufacturing capacity to clear. From the perspective of supply-demand balance, the current policy intensity is more aimed at boosting confidence, especially with the gradual introduction of targeted aggregate demand side policies such as incremental real estate and consumption, which may further determine the bottoming signal of PPI.
Chinese financial data may be released soon
Chinese financial data is usually released irregularly from the 9th to the 15th of each month.
In November, new house sales continued to rebound, which may drive the improvement of medium and long-term loans for residents. It is expected that the drag of new RMB loans on social financing will weaken in November. Against the backdrop of intensive issuance of special refinancing bonds, the issuance of government bonds accelerated in November, and the net financing scale of corporate bonds also increased in November, which may drive the increase of new social financing in November to a year-on-year increase. Caitong Securities predicts that the new credit in November will be about 1.1 trillion yuan, the scale of new social financing will be about 2.8 trillion yuan, and the M2 growth rate will decrease to 7.2%.
Western Securities believes that the recent rebound in real estate sales and the reduction in existing mortgage interest rates will help stabilize residents' loans. It is expected that new loans of 900 billion yuan will be added in November, still lower than the same period last year. Driven by the replacement of local bonds, the net issuance of government bonds accelerated in November, surpassing the same period last year. It is expected that the total amount of social financing will increase by 2.5 trillion yuan in November; The stock of social financing increased by 7.8% year-on-year, unchanged from October; M2 increased by 7.7% year-on-year, rebounding from 7.5% in October.
Oracle, Broadcom, C3.ai, Adobe and other AI concept stocks will announce their performance
Although next week is not the peak season for financial reports, companies closely related to AI industry software and hardware, including Oracle, Broadcom, and C3.ai, will release their financial reports, which may have an impact on the hype surrounding related concepts. In addition, Adobe, which has suffered multiple setbacks in the field of AI, needs to justify itself.
In addition, popular stocks such as GameStop and Costco will also announce their performance next week.
Mao Geping plans to announce the distribution results on the 9th and go public on December 10th
Chinese cosmetics company Mao Geping has become the company with the largest frozen capital on the Hong Kong stock market in 2024. The company plans to announce the distribution results on December 9th and go public on December 10th. The hidden market of Futu will open at 16:15 on December 9th.
This week's key performance calendar
Monday, December 9th
Keywords: China CPI/PPI, Oracle/C3.ai performance, Mao Geping's hidden agenda
On Monday, in terms of economic data, Japan's GDP, China's CPI and PPI, and the monthly wholesale sales rate in the United States will be released one after another.
In terms of financial reports, Oracle (ORCL. US) and C3. ai (AI. US) will announce their results after the US stock market closes.
In terms of new stocks, Mao Geping (01318. HK) will announce the lottery results and open a dark market at 16:15.
Tuesday, December 10th
Keywords: Game Station Performance, Mao Geping Listed
On Tuesday, in terms of financial reports, Game Station (GME. US) will announce its results after the US stock market closes.
In terms of new stocks, Mao Geping (01318. HK) $will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Wednesday, December 11th
Keywords: US CPI, Adobe performance
On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the United States will release its November CPI data.
In terms of financial report, Adobe (ADB. US) $will announce its results on the same day.
Thursday, December 12th
Keywords: US PPI, US weekly initial jobless claims, European Central Bank interest rate decision, Broadcom/Costco performance
On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the United States will release the November PPI and initial jobless claims.
In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision.
In terms of financial reports, Broadcom (AVGO. US) and Costco (COST. US) will announce their results after the US stock market closes on the same day.
Friday, December 13th
Keywords: Federal Reserve Q3 2024 account liquidity
On Friday, in terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will announce the flow of funds in its accounts for the third quarter of 2024.