This Tuesday, the United States will release September retail and core retail data. The market expects retail sales to be 0.3% month on month, a decrease from 0.6% last month. Expected retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline to be 0.1% month on month. The decrease in market expectations reflects the weakening of consumer enthusiasm in the environment of high interest rates. But if interest rates remain unchanged in November, this consumer anxiety may subside. Deng Zhijian believes that there is still a possibility of a recession in the United States, but due to the resilience of corporate profits and household consumption, the probability of a recession is relatively low.