US stock investors welcome Donald Trump's return to the White House, but the post election rebound is not entirely risk-free.
As investors bet on the prospect of Trump's proposed tax cuts and relaxed regulatory policies to boost the stock market, the three major US stock indices have continuously broken record highs since the November 5th election, and only reversed their gains on Tuesday.
Morgan Stanley recently outlined in a report three major risks that could overturn the 'Trump Deal'. The bank said that, first of all, the sharp rise in the yield of US treasury bond bonds may cause anxiety among stock investors.
Trump's election has led to the soaring yield of US treasury bond bonds, because Wall Street expects that his policies will push up inflation and keep interest rates high. On November 6, the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds rose 21 basis points to 4.47%.
So far, this is not enough to repel the confidence of stock market investors, but Morgan Stanley said that further rise in treasury bond bond yields may cause trouble for the stock market. The bank pointed out that concerns about the government's continuously expanding deficit may push up yields.
Morgan Stanley analysts also agree with this view, pointing out that once bond yields approach 5%, the stock market rebound will be weak.
Secondly, the strengthening of the US dollar may mean that large cap stocks will face problems.
After the election, the Bloomberg dollar index saw its largest increase in four years, reaching its highest level since November 2023.
Like bond yields, the US dollar is soaring due to market expectations that US interest rates will remain high for a longer period of time during the Trump administration. At the same time, due to concerns that the elected president will impose widespread tariffs on all US trade, the foreign currency exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen.
If the US dollar continues to strengthen at its current pace until the end of the year, it may slow down the earnings per share growth of multinational corporations in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2025, "Morgan Stanley wrote.
Thirdly, stock prices are overvalued.
As bullish investors compete to invest in market themes related to artificial intelligence this year, the S&P 500 index has increasingly deviated from its fundamentals.
More specifically, the year-on-year changes in the S&P index are rarely so disconnected from the extent of profit correction, "the analyst wrote. Once again, it is emphasized that this is more about considering major indices rather than common stocks, but it does indicate that more upward trend in price to earnings ratios may depend on whether the data confirms a re acceleration of economic growth
Just as Morgan Stanley issued the above warning, the "Trump deal" has cooled down somewhat. The three major US stock indices closed lower on Tuesday as investors took some profits from the post election rally and anxiously awaited the release of US inflation data this week. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.29% at 5983.99 points. The day before, all three major US stock indices hit historic highs, with the S&P 500 index reaching the 6000 point mark for the first time.