Canadian Goose, a high-end down jacket brand, recently released its Q2 2025 fiscal year performance report. In the three months ending September 29, 2024, sales decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to CAD 268 million (approximately RMB 1.384 billion), with direct sales and wholesale sales decreasing by 5% and 15.2% respectively to CAD 104 million and CAD 137 million.
As a comparison, the sales of Moncler Group in the third quarter of 2024 as of September 30 decreased by 3% year-on-year to 635.6 million euros, with sales of Moncler and Stone Island falling by 3% and 4% respectively to 532 million euros and 103 million euros. (Approximately RMB 4.881 billion, RMB 4.085 billion, and RMB 791 million respectively)
Divided by region, Canada Goose recorded a decline in sales in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, as well as the Asia Pacific market excluding China, with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa experiencing the largest decline at 13.5%. The sales in the Greater China market increased by 5.7% year-on-year, driving a sales growth of 3.6% in the entire Asia Pacific market, but the Asia Pacific market outside of China fell by 1%.
The autumn and winter seasons are usually the peak sales season for Canadian geese, but they are also difficult to escape from the downturn in the luxury goods industry.
In the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, Canada Goose sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year to CAD 1.334 billion. But apart from a 6.02% decline in sales due to the impact of the pandemic in fiscal year 2021, Canada Goose's sales increased by 21.54% and 10.84% in fiscal years 2022 and 2023, respectively.
In the fiscal year 2024, Greater China became the largest market for Canadian geese for the first time with sales of 422 million Canadian dollars, surpassing the 325 million Canadian dollars and 246 million Canadian dollars in the United States and Canada. This is mainly due to channel expansion, with over one-third of the brand's stores located in Greater China, the region with the largest number of stores in the world, and mostly operating in a direct sales model.
This explains why Canada Goose had a lower decline in direct channel revenue in the third quarter, but a 15.2% drop in wholesale channel sales is not a good signal. As the expansion pace accelerates, Canada Goose, like other luxury brands, has also begun to tighten its wholesale channels in order to enhance headquarters' control over global image and prices.
But Canada Goose has not fully achieved breakthroughs in this field.
After the release of the first quarter results for the 2021 fiscal year, Canada Goose's stock price experienced its largest decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020. At that time, investors believed that Canada Goose had the risk of over reliance on wholesale channels, and with the contraction of agency business, it was highly likely to lead to a shorter peak season revenue cycle and a decrease in total revenue.
As a response measure, Canada Goose has chosen to open more direct stores worldwide. However, in reality, Canadian geese still rely on wholesale channels. One of the reasons is that Canada Goose's global recognition was formed relatively late, and the limitations of its business experience and internal team size still require it to rely on agents to expand in different markets.
Even in the Chinese market, Canada Goose has not been able to fully control the relationship between wholesale channels and direct sales channels. In July 2023, the Beijing DT51 Canada Goose store operated by agents launched a 50% discount mid year promotion, where consumers can wait in line for up to 4 hours to enter the store.
Although there are not many similar incidents, any occurrence would damage the image of Canadian geese.
The deeper issue behind this is that from business models to image building, Canada Goose is still learning how to become a large-scale luxury brand. For a considerable period of time, Canada Goose has been a high-end outdoor brand based on usage and the need for winter warmth. When it attempted to transform into a luxury brand during its expansion, its style design failed to fully keep up with the pace of transformation.
The fashion industry has always been an industry that pays for "looks". Competitor Moncler has long been aware of this and has been launching the Moncler Genius project since 2018, collaborating with multiple independent designers and luxury brand creative directors. Many outdoor sports brands that have emerged in recent years have also entered the fashion industry, attempting to support premiums through more stylish products.
Canadian geese are also aware of the problems that exist within it.
As a response, Canada Goose has recently announced Haider Ackermann, who previously worked at LVMH's Berluti brand, as the first creative director after launching joint collections with multiple designers in the past. They have also established a new design studio and brand team in Paris. This can be seen as an important step taken by it to move closer to the luxury brand operating model.
But now in the high-end down jacket industry, the only brands that can be named are no longer Moncler and Canada Goose. Brands such as Mackage, Nobis, and Moose Knuckles are also accelerating their global market expansion. Among them, Moose Knuckles recently announced a strategic partnership with Bosideng, which holds over 30% of the shares.
The Canadian goose, which has been soaring on the trend for several years, has now found an increasing number of strong competitors surrounding it, while the dividends of the down jacket industry's transition to high-end and fashionable after 2015 are also diminishing. From a regional family owned company to a global luxury brand, Canada Goose took less than 10 years to grow, and now it is reaching its first turning point.