What was said at the Fed meeting in the wee hours of the morning? Will the Fed continue to raise rates this year? When will the expected rate cut come?
Will the Fed pause in September?

A more disciplined Fed plans to raise rates further.
Another sleepless night in the early hours of Thursday. The Federal Reserve met in September to discuss interest rate hikes and future U.S. rate hikes. The latest results showed that the Fed did not raise interest rates, leaving the US federal funds rate at 5.25-5.5%.
In the Fed's usual style, whenever it raises rates, the Fed will issue a "dovish" statement to calm dovish sentiment and tell everyone that there will be no future rate hike; But the Fed will not raise rates this time. Unsurprisingly, Powell chose to be very "hawkish."
Powell announces delay in rate cut.
The Fed said it will continue to assess the impact of inflation on the U.S. economy in order to better conduct monetary policy. We have also adopted a more market-consistent approach to raising interest rates, taking into account complex issues such as the cumulative effects of monetary policy, its impact on the economy, and the lag in inflation.
The statement seems complicated, but according to the dot plot of the meeting, the probability of the Fed raising rates once this year is more than 60%, and the median rate will rise by 50 basis points next year and beyond. .
The dot chart suggests one more rate hike this year.
This means that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates more, especially the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates in the future.
Fed Chairman Powell even bluntly said that the Fed never intended to signal when to cut interest rates, but it will certainly cut interest rates in the future; When interest rates are close to the required level, the Fed can "proceed with caution" and leave rates unchanged. The reason for the lack of change is the need to wait for more data to make better decisions.
Overall, the Fed continues to decide to raise rates based on monthly economic data, but the market is now pricing in a 40-60 percent chance of one 25-basis-point rate hike this year.
Another rate rise would also lead to a stronger dollar, a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, pressure on the Chinese currency, falling stock markets and turmoil in global financial markets. As for the long-awaited rate cut, we really don't know when it will be announced.
The US economy is in deep trouble.
However, the US does "have a disease". A number of "gray rhino" events led to a sustained recession in the United States economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to end the "interest rate hike cycle" early, and take back the sickle to harvest the world.
As the Grey rhino incident approaches, will there be many negative consequences for the United States? Bloomberg, the authoritative US economic agency, believes that the US economy will suffer a series of adverse effects in the coming period, which will destroy the US economy and undermine the interest rate hike plan.
First, the United Automobile Association strike.
As the inflation crisis intensifies, many American workers have lost the purchasing power of their wages and are struggling to make ends meet. That's why 150,000 American auto workers have banded together to call a strike. The strikers represent 56 percent of the U.S. auto industry.
American auto workers strike
If the strike continues, it means that the U.S. economy will be greatly affected, and the already troubled U.S. auto industry will be worse. This will affect the US economy in the third quarter. Statistics also show that the direct economic losses caused by the 10-day strike amounted to $5 billion, while the indirect impact is difficult to calculate.
The strike is a microcosm of strikes in the United States, including previous strikes by U.S. longshoremen and truck drivers, which have had a negative impact on the U.S. economy. That prompted the Fed to stop raising rates.
The second is that the price of US Treasuries has fallen by half, and US Treasury yields have hit new records.
The biggest gray rhino problem in the United States right now is the U.S. national debt. Treasury yields are now hitting record highs every year. For example, the yield on the two - and five-year notes is close to 5 per cent.
The yield on the bond itself is actually inversely proportional to its face value, so the higher the yield, the lower the exchange rate. At present, the price of the 30-year US Treasury bond issued around 2020 has been "halved", and the market price is only nominal. At around 49%, this means that US Treasuries are gradually becoming less attractive to the market.
China continues to sell Treasuries and currently holds $821.81 billion.
This is one aspect of China's continued dumping of US Treasuries. We are also concerned that a sudden "crash" in US Treasuries would have a huge impact on China's economy and foreign exchange reserves.
Third, the total debt of the United States continues to grow, the government may shut down, and the economy will be seriously affected.
The total U.S. debt is now $33 trillion and growing. According to projections, it is not uncommon for total debt to exceed the $5 billion mark in the future.
At the same time, as the total national debt increases, the U.S. Treasury must pay more interest. It is estimated that if the Federal Reserve's current interest rate is around 5.25%, the interest expense of the US government's issuance of national debt will exceed $1 trillion, which is more than the total military expenditure of the United States.
In this case, the Biden administration submitted a budget that would increase the deficit by $1 trillion. This wasteful budget is currently stuck in Congress. If the U.S. Congress blocks the budget, the U.S. government will be forced to shut down on September 30. As many as 4 million U.S. civil servants and active-duty military commanders will not be paid, and U.S. government agencies will be forced to close.
Us government scrambles to avoid 'shutdown'
This series of mysterious moves is also related to the Fed's choice of raising or lowering interest rates. If the Fed decides to continue to raise interest rates, it will continue to help win the battle against inflation and ease the persistent stubborn inflation problem in the United States.
But if the Fed is unable to withstand the pressures of a recession, it could cut rates early to rescue rising US interest payments and a widening US budget deficit.
Watch the Fed policy and be alert to capital flight pressures
As dollars continue to flow back to the United States, the impact of higher U.S. interest rates on the world economy is clearly negative. If developed countries follow the US in raising interest rates, it will also hurt their domestic economies, and the impact on developing countries will be even more profound.
As for China, due to the different national conditions of China and the United States, the United States has chosen to continue to raise interest rates, while China has chosen to continue to reduce interest rates and deposit reserve ratio to stimulate the economy. As a result, interest rate differentials between China and the US have now reversed sharply.
The US raised interest rates and the central bank decided to cut interest rates.
Us Treasury yields, for example, are 4.5 per cent, compared with about 2.3 per cent in China. The interest rate difference between China and the United States is inverted, and domestic funds may flee, and it is necessary to remain vigilant.
In general, under the circumstances of the risk-free interest rate of the United States exceeding 5%, the domestic deposit rate falling and the dismal A-share market, international funds choose to continue to sell and flee, and even short the Chinese market to take profits. This requires us to be more vigilant and introduce a series of response measures.
Fortunately, the Fed's rate hikes are over. High interest payments force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce interest payments in the United States. Otherwise, the US government itself will be overwhelmed by interest rates before the US solves its inflation problem.
In the future, with the announcement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the interest rate difference between China and the United States will also narrow, and China's economic development will enter a faster moment. Our life is getting better and better!