The domestic high-end mobile phone users that Apple has snatched from Huawei in the past few years are likely to gradually be returned.
An analyst at Jefferies, a US investment bank led by Edison Lee, recently stated in a report that Apple's new generation iPhone series had a poor start in sales in China last year, with a decline of about 30% compared to the previous year. It is expected to see a double-digit decline in 2024.
What makes Apple even more nervous is that its Chinese competitors have actually shown growth, especially Huawei, which has launched the Mate 60 series, with the most rapid growth. Although the latest monthly sales data has not yet been released, this trend is constantly strengthening in the Chinese market.
According to data from market research firm BCI, in November last year, in the mobile phone market priced above 4000 yuan, Apple held first place, occupying more than half of the market share. Huawei followed closely with 22.3%, while Xiaomi ranked third with 14.4%. This price range is usually considered a concentration of high-end mobile phone consumers.
But the growth rates of the three showed completely different trends, with Apple falling by 21.2% year-on-year and two domestic mobile phone brands rising by 8.8% and 11.8% respectively. This means that domestic high-end smartphones are constantly taking back the domestic user base from Apple.
Huawei's counterattack is clearly more intense, as it is accelerating its return to the high-end mobile phone market in China. At the end of August last year, the Huawei Mate 60 series was released ahead of the iPhone 15 series, which was seen by the outside world as Huawei's sniper at Apple. The starting price of this series of phones is the same as the iPhone 15, both of which are 5999 yuan, and the market was once in short supply.
According to the figures disclosed by Jeffrey, Huawei's expected smartphone shipments in 2023 are 35 million units. The institution believes that this number is difficult to further expand due to capacity constraints, and Huawei may focus on promoting capacity improvement in the future. If more and more consumers turn to purchasing Huawei phones, it will not be difficult for channels to digest these incremental purchases.
Like Apple, Huawei's self-developed operating system, HarmonyOS, also hopes to attract more and more developers to develop native applications for it. Previously, many enterprises such as Alipay and Meituan have joined Hongmeng's native application camp, and the number of devices connected to Hongmeng has exceeded 700 million, which is also the front battlefield of Apple's iOS ecosystem.
Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei Terminal BG and Chairman of Intelligent Automotive Solutions BU, once stated in a letter to all employees that this year is a crucial year for native HarmonyOS, and Huawei will accelerate the development of various native HarmonyOS applications.
Xiaomi, which intends to compete with Apple for the high-end mobile phone market, also gained a stronger presence last year. This company released the Xiaomi 14 series in October last year and performed well during the Double 11 period, becoming a major competitor in the mobile phone market for over 4000 yuan.
Based on the above background, institutions have not provided optimistic estimates of Apple's performance in the Chinese market this year. Although Apple has lowered the average selling price of iPhones through various promotional activities through online channels, this has not stimulated a significant increase in sales.
The relevant emotions have been transmitted to the capital market. In mid December last year, Apple's total market value exceeded $3.1 trillion, setting a new historical record. But since January this year, its market value has started to decline from a high of $3 trillion, and as of the close of January 8th Eastern Time, it has dropped to $2.82 trillion, a decrease of up to 9%.