Recently, Apple Vision Pro began to be released in the domestic market, and its high price has been driven by the cost increase brought about by the adoption of supply chain innovation technology.
For example, in the relatively important near eye display part, Apple used two Micro OLED displays provided by Sony. According to Tianfeng Securities analysis, the production yield of Micro OLED is about 50%, which limits production capacity, resulting in a single screen cost of $350 and an overall screen cost accounting for 48.4%.
Jibang Consulting pointed out that Micro OLED is undoubtedly the most decisive key component currently affecting Vision Pro in reducing cost efficiency and expanding shipment scale. Therefore, increasing Micro OLED suppliers has become a top priority for Apple's supply chain management.
This to some extent demonstrates the short-term challenges faced by the new display technology in its application process. However, the industry believes that Micro OLED is already a relatively mature technology route in new display technologies. Not long ago, Apple had just abandoned its attempt to apply another technology, Micro LED, on the watch end.
In addition, 2024 is a major year for sports events, which is expected to stimulate an increase in demand for large screens. So, can multiple routes of the new display benefit from its continuous development, and which ones are expected to grow rapidly?
Changes
As a benchmark for innovative applications, Apple's choices in the supply chain to some extent reflect the maturity and development space of new technology applications, and may even affect the operation of companies on the industrial chain side.
Apple originally planned to apply Micro LED technology to the Apple Watch watch, but it chose to cancel this promotion earlier this year.
TrendForce Consulting pointed out that the previously confirmed suppliers for Apple Watch included AMS OSRAM using Malaysia's 8-inch factory to provide Micro LED vertical chips, as well as LG Display, a major Korean panel manufacturer, responsible for glass driver backboards and large-scale transfer production processes. Nowadays, the failure of chip supply cooperation means that the originally planned product launch plan for 2026 may be difficult to achieve. The cancellation of Apple Watch even prompted AMS OSRAM to consider selling its 8-inch factory in Malaysia.
However, Samsung continues to advance the application of this technology in large screen TV products, currently covering multiple size ranges of 76 inches, 89 inches, 101 inches, 110 inches, and 114 inches.
According to senior analyst Chen Xuecheng from Sigmantell, the commercial progress of Micro LED technology is influenced by both technological maturity and cost, and its application in large-sized panels is relatively mature; Small scale applications require higher accuracy and finer pixel spacing, which poses a greater challenge to existing technologies.
"Therefore, the current stage focuses more on the large screen 2B and high-end consumer electronics market. With the continuous progress of technology and the gradual decrease in costs, MicroLED is expected to expand to a wider range of consumer electronics markets in the coming years." He continued. The ultra large spliceable TV and AR head display are considered the two scenarios that best highlight the outstanding performance of MicroLED. "Although the rigid demand for large-sized televisions and AR devices is still being explored, with the rapid rise of the AIGC field, this emerging technology is likely to become a key factor driving industrial innovation breakthroughs."
He also pointed out that with the in-depth application of AR in fields such as education, entertainment, healthcare, and industry, the demand for Micro LEDs is expected to further expand, promote its technological maturity and cost reduction, and ultimately achieve large-scale commercialization.
As for the vastly different application driven progress of Micro LED technology by Apple and Samsung, Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, also analyzed to 21st Century Business Herald reporters that Apple had previously mainly promoted small-sized glass based wearable products, which were completely different from Samsung's large-sized splicing products (similar to small pitch LED commercial displays). The former directly faces the mainstream consumer market and is very sensitive to cost, yield, and other factors; The latter can slowly penetrate into mainstream consumer markets based on niche markets, with a certain tolerance for issues such as high costs and immature technology.
"At present, Micro LED screens are mainly focused on the ultra large size market that is difficult for ordinary LCD screens to penetrate, and their costs are not enough to continue to challenge the ordinary consumer market dominated by LCD and OLED. Micro LED products targeting the ultra large size market can be seen as an evolutionary form that is in line with ordinary small pitch LED and Mini LED direct display, with high market acceptance. However, there is no clear boundary between them and the first two. Some Mini LED products that use Micro LED production technology or have some of its features often refer to themselves as Micro LED, but overall, they continue to develop towards true Micro LED display products along the COB and MIP technology lines." He further pointed out.
As for the potential impact of the popularity of sports events on new displays, Liu Yushi pointed out that this may create some stimulation for Micro LED large screen products, but the main reason hindering their promotion is still the cost. "It is difficult to reduce the cost of Micro LED to a competitive level compared to LCD and OLED during the period, and it is currently too early to explore replacing OLED."
Chen Xuecheng added to the reporter's analysis that Micro LED display technology is expected to experience a significant breakthrough in shipment volume from 2027 to 2028, driven by AR head displays at the earliest. "However, Micro LED is unlikely to compete with OLED in the field of consumer electronics in the short term. It will still take a long time to replace OLED in high-end flagship products. In the future, Micro LED is expected to become an important member of display technology, complementing OLED and other display technologies."
Differences
The application of Mini LED, another new display technology, appears to be more rapid, but the commercial strategies of different manufacturers still vary.
Qunzhi Consulting believes that Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics are influenced by the LCD TV panel supply chain, and their future development focus is shifting towards OLED. MiniLED product lines are shrinking, and their strategies are becoming more conservative.
Chinese brands firmly choose "large-size+MiniLED" in their product line, and actively pursue strategies for oversized and MiniLED products. Whether it is in product line layout or price strategy, they turn to attack from all angles and actively compete for market share. Among them, top brands such as TCL, Hisense, Xiaomi, and Skyworth have all shown positive strategies towards MiniLED backlit televisions, especially TCL, Hisense, and others, which are actively competing for market share not only in the Chinese market but also in the global market.
A senior executive of a display industry company analyzed to a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald that their company currently focuses on the Mini LED market. "We have been closely following the development of the Micro LED industry for many years, and believe that this technology route will have a place, especially in the field of near eye display applications. However, the reason why we hold a relatively conservative attitude in this regard is because we are also considering the impact and market evolution of related core technologies in the display industry as the surrounding industries develop."
He continued that as materials and technology become more stable, OLED is expected to have a certain impact on the Micro LED market in the field of near eye displays. In addition, the corresponding market applications for close eye display have not yet been fully developed. "Therefore, we currently believe that the company already has corresponding technological reserves, but further investment and large-scale industrialization of Micro LED technology still need to be observed for at least 2-3 years."
Qunzhi Consulting believes that the global shipment of MiniLED backlight televisions reached 3.2 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. It is expected that the global shipment volume of MiniLED backlight TVs will expand from 2024 to 2025, with a shipment scale of 7.5 million units by 2025. The global shipment scale is expected to surpass OLED TVs and become the mainstream of the global high-end TV market.
Regarding the Micro OLED technology adopted by Vision Pro, Chen Xuecheng told reporters that Micro OLED is ahead of Micro LED in terms of technology maturity and mass production, and Micro LED has attracted attention due to its potential performance advantages and technological innovation, but there are also more challenges to overcome.
Specifically, Micro OLED is a realistic technology based on the development of OLED, which utilizes miniaturized OLED pixels to construct displays on silicon substrates. The advantage of this technology lies in inheriting all the advantages of OLED, such as high contrast, wide viewing angle, and fast response time, while also possessing the characteristics of ultra-high resolution, small size, and light weight, making it very suitable for head mounted device applications such as XR. The manufacturing process of Micro OLED is relatively mature, and the yield of some products, especially those below 1 inch, has reached a high level. It can be stably produced on a large scale, and the cost is controlled within a reasonable range.
Liu Yushi also analyzed and pointed out that Micro OLED technology has been widely used in various AR and VR products. For micro display applications, Micro OLED is already a very mature display technology.
"Micro OLED is made by evaporating OLED materials onto single crystal silicon substrates, and silicon-based Micro LEDs based on single crystal silicon substrates have also been mass-produced and launched on a small scale, for some AR products that require high brightness. Apple has previously developed larger sized, wearable glass based Micro LEDs, which use more LED chips on single chip products and require processes such as large-sized wafers, massive transfer, and repair to reduce costs to an acceptable level. Therefore, the difficulty of mass production is significantly higher than silicon-based Micro LEDs used for micro displays." He added.