Wang Ye said that financial news: The world situation will undergo a huge change, as the world's third largest economy is going to "replace", no longer Japan, but Germany. This year, Japan's GDP will be surpassed by Germany.
So how much will Germany's GDP be in 2023? Why can we surpass the "third generation" Japan?
On Tuesday (24th), according to the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economic landscape will undergo significant changes in 2023 as the world's third largest economy is about to change ownership.
In terms of specific data, the IMF predicts that Japan's nominal GDP in 2023 will be approximately 4230.8 billion US dollars, equivalent to RMB 30.95 trillion, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous year.
On the contrary, in 2023, Germany's nominal GDP will grow by 8.4%, ultimately reaching approximately $4429.8 billion.
In other words, in 2023, Germany's nominal GDP will surpass Japan, becoming the world's third largest economy, while Japan will fall to the world's fourth largest.
At the same time, Wang Ye said that Finance and Economics also noticed that according to the data forecast released by the IMF, the per capita GDP of Germany is expected to be 52824 US dollars, while Japan is only 33950 US dollars, with a significant difference between the two.
As mentioned above, in 2023, Japan's GDP fell to the third place in the world, and Germany rose to the third place. So who are the top two?
The answer is obvious! It's the United States and China.
In terms of specific data, the IMF predicts that in 2023, the world's top ranked GDP will be the United States, with a GDP growth rate of 5.8% to $26.9496 trillion, followed by China with a nominal GDP of $17.7009 trillion.
Finally, why can Germany's GDP surpass that of Japan? You know, Japan has been firmly positioned as the world's "third" for many years!
Regarding this, Wang Ye said that Finance believes that the main reason is that the yen has continued to decline, and the nominal GDP converted into US dollars will be much less than that of Germany.
In terms of specific data, due to the current yen/euro exchange rate approaching the 160 yen mark, the exchange rate against the US dollar is close to a 33 year low. The last time the yen/euro exchange rate hit 160 was in August 2008.
Of course, the main reason for the significant depreciation of the yen is the fundamental divergence in monetary policies between Japan and Europe (Germany).
Although the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, borrowing costs are expected to remain high for a longer period of time, which may continue to put pressure on the yen.
The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting next week, and there is speculation that it may adjust its control over bond yields, but it is widely expected that negative interest rates will not end until 2024.
As Wang Ye said, finance and economics have reported multiple times before. For Japan, the biggest economic weakness lies in the weak yen, while for Germany, the biggest economic problem lies in high inflation.
So whether it's the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, their main goal is to address inflation, which is why interest rates have been continuously raised from the lows during the pandemic, while the Bank of Japan has maintained a stimulus model, hoping to promote price growth after years of deflation.
Overall, in comparison, Germany's long-term economic growth will be more stable, which will also allow Japanese policymakers to consider the details of the latest economic package.
What do you think of this? What do you think will happen to the economies of Germany and Japan next? Can Japan regain its position as the third largest country in the world?