On the morning of October 16th, the "2023 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Report Release Conference" was held in Nanjing, sponsored by the International Monetary Fund's Representative Office in China and the School of Economics and Management of Southeast University, jointly organized by the Institute of Digital Economy and Technological Innovation of Southeast University and the Jiangsu Provincial Macroeconomic Society, and co organized by the Southeast University MBA Alumni Association.
Steven Alan Barnett, Chief Representative of the IMF in China, Mehdi Benatiya Andalousi, Economist at the IMF Research Department, Zhang Zhixiang, former Director of the International Department of the People's Bank of China and former Executive Director of China at the IMF, Jin Bei, Member of the Academic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Li Kanzhen, President of the Jiangsu Society of Macroeconomics, and Xu Kangning, Chief Professor of Southeast University and Vice President of the China Society of World Economics attended the meeting and delivered speeches. They came from the financial management department More than a hundred experts and scholars from research institutes and the financial industry attended the press conference. The meeting was chaired by Pu Zhengning, Vice Dean of the School of Economics and Management at Southeast University.
Huang David, member of the Standing Committee of the Party Committee and Vice President of Southeast University, delivered an opening speech. He mentioned that the current downward pressure on the economy is significantly increasing, and the impact of external uncertainty is significantly intensifying. At the same time, global financial integration is constantly advancing, and the interdependence and permeability between economies are increasingly deepening. Against this backdrop, the release of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Report as scheduled is of profound significance!
He stated that expanding the policy perspective from the short term to the medium to long term, promoting cross cycle design and regulation of monetary policy, will help build a new development path to enhance economic resilience and promote high-quality economic development. This press conference provides a theoretical and macro perspective analysis of global economic development trends. Southeast University will also work with domestic and foreign institutions such as the International Monetary Fund to contribute the wisdom of Southeast University to global financial stability, development, regulatory strategies, fiscal and monetary policies, etc.
Mr. Steven Alan Barnett, the Chief Representative of the IMF in China, first delivered a keynote speech. He pointed out that the world economy will be resilient in 2023, but there has been a widespread scarring effect in the post pandemic economy. According to the latest forecast, the global economic growth rate will slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% this year and 2.9% in 2024. But China remains the largest engine of global economic growth, contributing one-third of global growth. The scar effect is more pronounced in low-income developing countries after the epidemic, especially in the least developed countries, which have suffered the greatest damage and left permanent scars. The economic growth forecasts of various countries have diverged, with the slowdown in economic growth in developed economies being more pronounced.
Secondly, he pointed out that inflation in many countries is much higher than before and is expected to gradually decrease, indicating that the economy has basically achieved a "soft landing" and there has been no recession, which reflects the efforts of central banks and all parties involved. China's inflation is different from the world's pattern and has not increased significantly, but has remained at a relatively suitable level, around 2.2%.
At the same time, he also pointed out that the tightening cycle is basically over, but inflation in most countries is unlikely to return to the target level before 2025.
In addition, Steven Barnett pointed out that the current global growth outlook is weak, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. In the context of slowing economic growth, rising interest rates, and shrinking fiscal space, more structural reforms are needed to enhance total factor productivity.
He also pointed out that global trade has always been an important driving force for economic growth, and called on countries to strengthen cooperation and use the digital economy to drive global economic integration.
Finally, Steven Barnett advocates for everyone to remain optimistic and believe that the world can work together. For example, the IMF provided interest free loans during the pandemic and has also taken positive actions in the climate area to enhance economic resilience and combat the current challenges facing the economy.
Mr. Mehdi Benatiya Andalousi, an economist at the IMF's research department, delivered a keynote speech, pointing out that due to the close relationship between commodities and the macro economy, high concentration of production, wide demand, and difficulty in replacing them, especially the concentration of suppliers of mineral products and grains in a few countries, many countries heavily rely on importing commodities from a few supply countries. The geopolitical fragmentation may lead to turbulence in key mineral and agricultural commodity markets, leading to significant price fluctuations. Market fragmentation also increases the cost of green transformation for countries. Therefore, countries around the world should strengthen international cooperation, establish a "corridor" for food and mineral products to ensure food and green transformation, share data on key mineral products, improve the efficiency of commodity trade, enhance countries' response capabilities, and accelerate green energy transformation.
Subsequently, Professor Jin Bei, a member of the academic department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, delivered a keynote speech on economic forecasting and outlook. He pointed out that the traditional macro and micro paradigms have the characteristics of short-term, demand side oriented, and instrumental rationality. Based on this, models can be established to predict future values based on three major categories of data: price, growth, and monetary volume.
He emphasized that economic forecasting and outlook for the future should strive towards a more realistic and long-term direction, and pay attention to the current changes in China's technological and demographic structure, which will have a profound impact on China's economic growth.
The discussion session was chaired by Zhang Zhixiang, former Director of the International Department of the People's Bank of China and former Executive Director of China at the IMF. Steven Alan Barnet, Chief Representative of the IMF in China, Mehdi Benatiya Andalousi, Economist at the IMF Research Department, Jin Bei, Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Li Kanzhen, President of the Jiangsu Society of Macroeconomics, and Chief Professor at Southeast University Xu Kangning, Vice President of the China World Economic Society, and other attending guests discussed the most urgent issues that need to be addressed in the development of the world economy, such as geopolitical fragmentation, and how to view the Chinese economy.
President Li Kanzhen stated during the seminar that although the global economy is currently hindered, in terms of the situation in Jiangsu, the number of people viewing and subscribing to real estate is constantly increasing, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are also thriving, indicating that consumer confidence is gradually recovering. Therefore, he still maintains a cautious and positive attitude towards China's economic development.
Professor Xu Kangning pointed out that the IMF's prediction of China's economic growth ranks among the top among major economies, indicating that although the Chinese economy has bid farewell to the double-digit high-speed growth stage, the real economy still has strong resilience. Based on the premature aging and structural transformation of China's growth model, he believes that the government should introduce relevant policies to encourage more consumption, while improving real estate demand and promoting high-quality economic development.
It is understood that the World Economic Outlook Report is the flagship report of the IMF, which introduces the IMF's analysis of global economic development in the near and medium term and is published twice a year. The report involves a summary and analysis of regional economic issues in developed, developing, and emerging market countries, and proposes solutions to urgent topics in the current global economy. The analysis and predictions in the World Economic Outlook are important references for understanding the global economic system and international financial markets.
(Jiangsu Radio and Television Integrated Media News Center/Huang Di, Qiu Yu, Wang Yao, Correspondent/Sun Liang, Qiu Yi, Man, Hang Tian, Editor/Gao Ruotong)