In the field of autonomous driving, there is big news!
According to Bloomberg, the team of President elect Trump of the United States plans to seek to relax the US regulations on autonomous vehicle. Insiders have revealed that the Trump team is seeking leaders for the US Department of Transportation to develop a regulatory framework for autonomous driving. If the new regulations make fully autonomous vehicles possible, then Tesla CEO Musk will directly benefit.
Affected by this, Tesla's US stock market rose sharply in pre-market trading, rising more than 8%.
In addition, informed sources say that one of the candidates considered by Trump for Secretary of Transportation is Emil Michael, a former Uber executive who has already met with Trump's team, but the job is still in its early stages. In addition, Missouri Republican Congressman Sam Graves and Louisiana Republican Congressman Garret Graves are also Trump's candidates for Secretary of Transportation.
Trump may relax restrictions on autonomous vehicle
Bloomberg reported on the 17th local time that an insider revealed that President elect Trump's team plans to "build a federal framework for fully autonomous vehicle" as one of the priorities of the US Department of Transportation.
According to reports, Musk is betting on Tesla's future on autonomous driving technology and artificial intelligence (AI), and if new regulations make fully autonomous vehicles possible, Musk will directly benefit.
As the "big spender" of Trump's presidential campaign, Musk has now become a prominent figure in Trump's inner circle. On November 12th local time, Trump announced that Musk will collaborate with Indian entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswami to lead the newly established "Government Efficiency Department" and develop strategies to improve government operational efficiency. According to insider news from the US media, after Trump's victory, Musk and Trump are inseparable and have played the role of America's "First Buddy". Bloomberg senior reporter Dana Hull also stated that Musk, like the de facto vice president, will play a role in shaping the future development framework of the US federal government.
Tesla is planning to deploy cars without steering wheels or pedals on a large scale, however, current federal regulations pose significant obstacles to this plan, including limiting the upper limit of its deployment. At present, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (a subsidiary of the U.S. Department of Transportation) allows manufacturers to deploy 2500 autonomous vehicle every year with exemption, but legislative efforts to increase this number to 100000 have repeatedly failed.
Bloomberg reported that two informed sources said that a bipartisan bill in the early stages of discussion will establish federal rules for autonomous vehicles. They said that one of the candidates considered by Trump for Secretary of Transportation is Emil Michael, a former Uber executive who has met with the Trump team, but the job is still in its early stages and policy details have not yet been determined. In addition, Missouri Republican Congressman Sam Graves and Louisiana Republican Congressman Garret Graves are also Trump's candidates for Secretary of Transportation.
According to a report by The New York Times on the 17th local time, US President elect Trump is reconsidering the candidates for the position of US Treasury Secretary after he takes office, including former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh and Wall Street billionaire Mark Rowan.
Previously, it was predicted that Trump would choose Howard Lutnik, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and billionaire, or Scott Besant, founder of Key Square Group, a global macro investment firm. But Trump has been repeatedly considering and deliberating. Trump is expected to invite multiple candidates to meet at Mar-a-Lago this week.
Institution: Autonomous driving has arrived, investment timing has arrived
In October of this year, Tesla held a new product launch event with the theme of "WE ROBOT", announcing the Robotaxi autonomous taxi service, two fully autonomous vehicle models Cybercab and Robovan, and launching wireless induction charging technology for Robotaxi.
Open source securities analysts Ren Lang and Zhao Xuyang stated that the core stage of autonomous driving is the functionality and experience of L4 level Robotaxi. L4 can not only break through the cognitive barriers of ordinary consumers (the driver's seat can be unoccupied) and bring about a real breakthrough effect, but also achieve true innovation in business models. The release of Tesla Cybercab means that 2025-2026 is the time for large-scale commercialization of L4 level autonomous driving in the United States. The current technological gap between China and overseas is gradually narrowing, which also means that the true L4 level autonomous driving in China has arrived, and the investment time has come.
The above analysts pointed out that experience and cost reduction are the two core driving forces behind the advancement of autonomous driving. The core driving force of autonomous driving lies in two aspects: one is experience; The other is cost. From the perspective of experience, leading players in China such as Huawei, Xiaopeng, and Ideal have achieved nationwide unmanned and large model anthropomorphic driving, and the overall experience has begun to approach the FSD V12, reaching a stage of usability. In terms of cost, the pure visual solution of Xiaopeng P7+(with the same experience as the LiDAR version) has significantly reduced the cost of intelligent driving, and can achieve full standard configuration in the mainstream price range of 150000 to 200000 yuan. Under the dual wheel drive of experience and cost, the penetration rate of advanced intelligent driving (equipped with dual Orin-X or MDC 610) models is expected to approach 5% in 2024. With the further improvement of price range and experience, the penetration rate of advanced intelligent driving is expected to exceed 10% in 2025, ushering in accelerated penetration of the entire industry. The stage of 510% penetration rate is a better investment time.
Guoyuan Securities analyst Peng Qi stated in his latest research report that Tesla expects Robotaxi to be produced in 2026 and mass-produced in 2027. However, if approved by China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, Model 3/Y will be the first to experience autonomous driving capabilities and may have the potential to become an autonomous taxi. Other new energy vehicle manufacturers are following Robotaxi, which is expected to drive demand for electronic components such as in car cameras (CIS), storage chips, wireless charging modules, and SoCs.
According to Frost Sullivan's prediction, Robotaxi service (autonomous driving travel service) will be commercialized around 2026, and the global market size is expected to reach $290 million by 2025 and further reach $66.6 billion by 2030. China is expected to become the largest Robotaxi market, with market sizes expected to reach $200 million and $39 billion by 2025 and 2030, respectively.