As the outcome of the US election approaches dust, the global market quickly enters a stage of thinking about "what the world will be like in the next four years", and this topic will undoubtedly be the main thread running through next week.
The reason why the election is "approaching" the end is because there is still a little bit of final suspense to be revealed. Against the backdrop of Trump winning the White House and the Republican Party winning the Senate, the House of Representatives is also considered highly likely to belong to the Republican Party, but the results are still being calculated.
As of press time, according to data from the Associated Press, out of all 435 seats, the Republican Party has already won 212 seats, with only the last 6 seats left to confirm their victory. Among the states currently undergoing vote counting, there are 6 Republican candidates who are leading by at least 3%, and 4 who are leading by less than 1%.
(U.S. House of Representatives election, source: Associated Press)
After finalizing the ownership of Congress, the market will closely monitor the composition of the "Trump 2.0 team". The White House announced on Saturday that Biden will meet with Trump next Wednesday. This also represents the official start of the transition handover between the two governments.
(Source: White House official website)
It is reported that with Trump's selection of senior campaign manager Suzy Wiles as White House Chief of Staff, the transition teams between the Department of Defense and the State Department have also been in place. At the same time, "insiders" from various media outlets have provided completely opposite reports on whether Trump has invited Lighthizer to continue serving as Chief Trade Representative. It is not difficult to imagine that in the coming weeks, rumors about a series of positions in the Trump administration, such as Secretary of State, Treasury Secretary, and Secretary of Commerce, will definitely be heard.
At this point in time, the 31st Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Informal Meeting will be held in Peru next week, followed by the Brazil G20 Leaders' Summit on November 18-19. Against the backdrop of increasing instability and uncertainty in the international situation, the importance of major global leaders gathering together is self-evident.
In terms of the US stock market, the fluctuations in the past few days indicate that next week will still be a time of "Trump trading" intertwined with the US dollar and US bonds. It is worth noting that Monday (November 11th) is Veterans Day in the United States, and the US stock market will trade as usual, but the bond market will be closed.
(The 10-year US Treasury yield surged 4.5% before falling back)
Considering the recent discussions surrounding the possibility of the Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, the CPI data for next Wednesday, PPI for Thursday, and retail sales data for Friday will be closely monitored. After the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut this week, there were no expectations for the December policy meeting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also have a role next week, as he will attend a dialogue event at the Dallas Fed at 4am Beijing time on Friday.
In terms of financial reports, Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase will all release their latest financial reports next week as Chinese concept stocks begin to disclose their performance.
In terms of other economic events, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will release their latest meeting minutes, while China's October economic data will also be released next Friday.
Finally, next week there will be a focus event that has attracted the attention of Chinese investors - the Zhuhai Air Show (China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition). This year's air show will start on November 12th and last until November 17th. This year's air show will showcase for the first time medium-sized stealth multi-purpose fighter jets such as the J-35A, the Hong-19 surface to air missile weapon system, and new integrated reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicles.
(First site adaptation training photo of J-35A, source: CCTV News)
Overview of Important Financial Events Next Week (Beijing Time)
Monday (November 11th): The Bank of Japan releases the opinions of the members of the October monetary policy meeting review committee
Tuesday (November 12th): OPEC releases monthly crude oil market report, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November
Wednesday (November 13th): US October CPI, UK October CPI
Thursday (November 14th): US October PPI, IEA releases monthly crude oil market report, Eurozone Q3 GDP correction data, European Central Bank October meeting minutes
Friday (November 15th): The 31st APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting (until the 16th), the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy, the National Bureau of Statistics released the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in public activities, Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech, and the US retail data for October
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