Harris delivered a speech acknowledging his defeat in the election.
On the afternoon of November 6th local time, Harris, the current Vice President of the United States and Democratic presidential candidate, delivered a speech at Howard University in Washington D.C. Harris stated that she accepts the outcome of losing the election and will assist Trump and his team in completing the power transition peacefully.
The US Capitol Police previously warned in an intelligence assessment report that threats to government officials and election related venues will intensify after the 2024 presidential election. It emphasizes the possibility of violence and civil unrest occurring before and after the two critical moments of the 2025 electoral vote authentication process and the presidential inauguration ceremony.
After Trump announced his victory and the Republican Party regained control of the Senate, the only remaining suspense in the US election is the ownership of the House of Representatives. As of 16:40 on November 6th Beijing time, the current election situation for the 35 seats is: 175 seats for the Democratic Party, 194 seats for the Republican Party, and 66 seats for which the results have not been announced.
Analysis suggests that if Trump's Republican Party can win both houses, it will be very advantageous for the implementation and execution of their own policies; On the contrary, policy implementation will face significant obstacles. The ownership of the House of Representatives may affect the policy implementation sequence of the new government in the next four years. In the context of the 'Republican sweep', the White House's focus may first be on domestic affairs in the United States.
Harris' latest statement
According to CCTV News App, on the afternoon of November 6th local time, Harris, the current Vice President of the United States and Democratic presidential candidate, delivered a speech at Howard University in Washington D.C.
Harris stated that she accepts the outcome of losing the election and will assist Trump and his team in completing the power transition peacefully.
Earlier that day, Harris congratulated Trump on his victory in Mandarin.
On November 6th local time, US President Biden called Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump to congratulate him on winning the 2024 US presidential election and invited him to the White House to discuss the handover of power. The White House has stated that staff will coordinate dates in the 'near future'.
It is reported that Biden plans to deliver a speech on the election results on November 7th.
In addition, Biden has also spoken with current Vice President of the United States and Democratic presidential candidate Harris to affirm the work of his campaign team.
According to calculations and reports from multiple US media outlets on the 6th, in the 2024 US presidential election, Trump's electoral votes have exceeded the 270 required for election. Trump delivered his victory speech at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in Florida in the early morning of the 6th.
According to Politico, a US political news website, on November 6th local time, two informed US government officials revealed that the Biden administration is preparing to quickly disburse the final installment of nearly $6 billion in US security aid to Ukraine before the inauguration ceremony of new President Trump.
Sudden Warning
According to ABC local time on November 5th, the US Capitol Police warned in an intelligence assessment report that threats to government officials and election related venues will intensify after the 2024 presidential election.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the early morning of November 6th Eastern Time, former US President and Republican candidate Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election.
This report was released earlier this month, emphasizing the possibility of violence and civil unrest occurring before and after the key moments of the 2025 electoral vote authentication process and the presidential inauguration ceremony.
According to the established procedure, the following important time points will follow:
From November 6th to December 11th, 2024, each state will gradually certify the election results;
On December 17, 2024, the United States Electoral College held a vote;
On January 6, 2025, the United States Congress will hold a joint session to officially count the electoral votes, certify the results of the Electoral College's voting, and announce the official results of the presidential election;
On January 20, 2025, the new president will hold his inauguration ceremony.
The report from the US Capitol Police points out that although the threats to congressional members in 2024 are fewer than in 2020, such threats have significantly increased after election day four years ago. The Capitol Police expects this trend to repeat in 2024.
The report states that the escalating comments on social media "may indicate that a favorable environment for political violence is emerging after the US presidential election.
The Capitol Police anticipate that there will be protests against the election certification process and stated that "a group with a history of large-scale illegal demonstrations is planning to protest the inauguration ceremony regardless of the election results.
They also anticipate protests related to the conflict between Israel and Gaza, and point out that these organizations "will almost certainly target the inauguration ceremony".
The report emphasizes that threat actors view the electoral vote authentication process and inauguration ceremony as "their last chance to influence the election results through violence".
The Capitol Police also warned that some threats are "still unknown", especially violent threats from "lone actors".
On November 4th local time, officials from the United States National Guard stated that over 20 states have expressed their willingness to dispatch National Guard troops to Washington D.C. if requested in the weeks following the presidential election and during the preparation phase for the inauguration of a new president.
The final suspense
After Trump announced his victory and the Republican Party regained control of the Senate, the only remaining suspense in the US election is the ownership of the House of Representatives.
The control of both houses of Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) by the two parties in the United States is also a key factor affecting the subsequent implementation of US policies. If Trump's Republican Party can win both houses, it will be very beneficial for the implementation and execution of their own policies; On the contrary, policy implementation will face significant obstacles.
The United States House of Representatives has a total of 435 seats, all of which need to be re elected every two years. The party that wins 218 seats will control the House of Representatives; The Senate has a total of 100 seats, and one-third of them are re elected every two years. The party that obtains 50 or more seats will control the Senate.
As of November 6th, the latest data from the Associated Press shows that the Republican Party has taken the lead in 51 seats in the Senate, which means that the Republican Party has won control of the Senate. In terms of the House of Representatives, as of 16:40435 Beijing time on November 6th, the current election situation for the 35 seats is: 175 seats for the Democratic Party, 194 seats for the Republican Party, and 66 seats for which the results have not been announced. The Polymarket website shows that the Republican Party has a 90% chance of winning the House of Representatives.
Minsheng Securities pointed out that the ownership of the House of Representatives plays a decisive role in the fiscal outlook of the United States in 2025. In June 2023, Congress approved the suspension of the federal government's statutory debt ceiling until January 1, 2025, which is also one of the important reasons for the continued growth of federal debt this year and the sustained strength of the US fiscal system to support the economy.
On January 2, 2025, the debt ceiling will expire, and the Ministry of Finance will initiate "extraordinary measures". The two houses of Congress will start a new round of negotiations, during which fiscal expansion will not be possible. If Congress unifies, the negotiation progress may be smoother, and a new debt ceiling bill may be implemented in the first half of the year. But if Congress splits, the negotiation process for the debt ceiling is expected to be more difficult, which could lead to a significant decline in the US finances next year.
In addition, the ownership of the House of Representatives may affect the policy implementation sequence of the new government in the next four years. In the context of the 'Republican sweep', the White House's focus may first be on domestic affairs in the United States.
For Trump's follow-up policy attention, Minsheng Securities pointed out that two approaches can be followed: what is said after the election is more important than before the election; Actions are more important than words. One is to pay attention to the new president's winning speech and policy manifesto, which may provide clues for the policy sequence in 2025, and executive orders on immigration and other aspects may be prioritized for implementation. Secondly, pay attention to the personnel arrangements of the new government. Trump and his transition team may announce new cabinet candidates in November and December, and after being approved by the Senate, they will be sworn in from February to March next year. Focus on key positions such as Minister of Finance and Trade Representative.